2008 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament: Vanderbilt vs. Montana Preview
March 18th 2008
by LeAnne Harrington, SECWB.com
The Vanderbilt Commodores (#20 ESPN/USA Today, #21 AP) received an at-large bid to the 2008 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament, securing a 4th seed in the Spokane Region. They will face the Montana Grizzlies, a 13th seed, in the first round on Saturday, March 22 at the Pit (Bob King Court at the University of New Mexico) in Albuquerque. Game time is set for 9:30 pm CST and can be seen on ESPN2.
Vanderbilt is making their 9th straight appearance in the NCAA tournament and their 21st appearance overall. The Commodores finished the season strong, winning 10 of their last 12 games, with both of those losses at the hands of defending National Champions Tennessee. After Vandy lost at UT on Jan. 20, they ripped off six straight wins before falling to the Big Orange at home on Feb. 17 by a score of 81-68. After that loss, the Commodores finished the regular season with three conference wins, before splitting a pair at the SEC Tournament. Vandy defeated Auburn 49-44 in an ugly quarterfinal game before falling to UT for the third time this season, 63-48, in the SEC semifinals.
Vanderbilt will have to storm out of the gates quickly, as Montana is a very strong first round opponent. The Grizzlies finished the regular season 23-6 before posting two big wins in the Big Sky Tournament and garnering an automatic bid to the NCAAs. They defeated Portland State in the conference tourney semifinals 94-80 (avenging a loss to PSU to end the regular season) and then blew Montana State away in the championship game by a score of 101-65. In those two games, the Griz connected on an impressive 23-of-40 three-pointers, which moved them up from 12th to fifth in the nation in three-point field goal percentage as a team with an average of 39.6%. Montana’s top sharpshooter is junior guard Sonya Rogers, who is leading the nation as the most accurate three-point shooter, connecting on 48.6% of her shots from beyond the arc. Montana also ranks in the Top Ten in the nation in free throw percentage, which has proven to be the Commodores’ Achilles heel for much of the season. In their two conference tournament games, the Grizzlies went 42-of-46 from the line which gives them a 77.8% average, moving them from 14th to eighth nationally in team free throw percentage. Montana is also ranked 11th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 75.6 points per game.
Montana has a strong winning tradition, and the 2008 tournament marks the Grizzlies’ 17th appearance in the NCAAs, all under the tutelage of coach Robin Selvig. Selvig, in his 30th season at the helm, is just three wins shy of 700, and is the sixth winningest active Division I coach. This season, Selvig coached the Grizzlies to their 26th 20-win season and is the all-time winningest coach in Big Sky history, having been named Big Sky Conference Coach of the Year 17 times. But Selvig has not had much success against the SEC, going 0-13 against Southeastern Conference teams in his career at Montana. The Grizzlies are 0-2 against Vanderbilt, having lost most recently to the Commodores 67-44 in the 2005 NCAAs.
Montana is led in scoring by junior guard Mandy Morales, who averages 16.4 points per game and has dished out a team-high 124 assists this season. Morales has had an illustrious career at Montana so far: she was the league’s Player of the Year as a freshman, was the conference tournament MVP this year, and has been named first team all-Big Sky each of her three seasons in Missoula. Sonya Rogers is second on the team in scoring, averaging 12.5 points per game, while senior Johanna Closson averages 10.2. Junior forward Britney Lohman leads Montana in rebounding, averaging 5.8 boards a game, and Closson chips in another 5.4 rebounds per contest.
After the loss of three outstanding senior starters from last year’s squad, many people expected this to be a down year for the Commodores, but Vanderbilt enters the NCAAs having set a school record for regular season SEC wins with 11. Coach Melanie Balcomb has led the Commodores to the NCAAs in each of her six seasons at the school, but she and the team are looking to improve on last season’s early exit from the tourney, where they were upset in the second round by Bowling Green. Vandy is led in scoring by junior Christina Wirth, averaging 12.9 points per game, and senior Liz Sherwood comes in off the bench to contribute 11. Junior guard Jennifer Risper leads the team in rebounding, pulling down 6.4 boards per contest while chipping in 9.6 points per game, which is third on the team in scoring.
Vanderbilt Probable Starters:
PG Jence Rhoads, 5’11” FR - 3.8ppg, 3.4 apg
G Merideth Marsh, 5’9” SO - 8.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg
G Jen Risper, 5’9” JR - 9.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg
F Christina Wirth, 6’1” JR - 12.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg
F/C Hannah Tuomi, 6’0” FR - 5.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg
Montana Probable Starters:
G Mandy Morales, 5‘9“ JR - 16.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4 apg
G Sonya Rogers, 5‘7“ JR - 12.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg
F Johanna Closson, 6‘ SR - 10.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg
F Britney Lohman, 6‘1“ JR - 9 ppg, 5.8 rpg
C Tamara Guardipee, 6‘2“ JR - 5.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg
My prediction: On paper this looks like it should be a well-matched evenly fought battle between two quality teams. Vanderbilt will be faced with the task of playing a team that greatly resembles themselves, with a lineup that isn’t especially blessed with a lot of height but which relies heavily on outside shooting. Montana is fifth in the nation from beyond the arc, averaging 39.6%, and Vanderbilt is eighth, averaging 38.7% from 3-point range. It will be interesting to see how Vandy defends the perimeter against this gang of sharpshooters. There may be some fireworks, as Montana comes in averaging 75.6 ppg while Vandy holds their opponents to 56.5 ppg, almost 20 points below Montana’s average. Look for Jen Risper or Jessica Mooney to draw the assignment on Sonya Rogers, hoping to shut down or at least make life difficult for the leading three-point shooter in the nation. It could be interesting early, especially if Montana finds their groove from outside, but the Commodores will prove why they drew a #4 seed. With an RPI that ranks 17th, and a Strength of Schedule that places them 25th, Vandy has played 13 games against teams that made it into this year’s field of 64, compared to Montana’s lone game against NCAA tourney-bound UCSB. Montana’s RPI of 64 and their rank of 188th in strength of schedule will ultimately prove that they can’t hang with the third best team in the SEC. My pick is Vandy by 14.